Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,

Franken campaign on pace to win recount?

The recount for Minnesota began yesterday, and, by day's end, with about 18% of the vote recounted, Norm Coleman continues to lead Al Franken, but by only 174 votes, a net gain of 41 votes for Franken.

In addition, the Coleman camp disputed 146 ballots, while the Franken camp challenged 123.

If this trend holds up, this would extrapolate out to a net gain of 228 votes for Franken, which is exactly 13 votes more than he would need to take the lead. Indeed, there are some indications that the trend we are seeing might actually get more favorable for Franken, because though 18% of the total votes have been recounted, about 27% of precincts have been counted... and smaller precincts would, on average, be more advantagious to the Coleman campaign.

This general trend in the recount, however, isn't the only decisive factor. It's also all those votes that the Coleman and Franken camp are challenging in the recount. If current trends continue, the Coleman camp will dispute 811 ballots, while the Franken camp will dispute 683. Assuming that the review panel approves just half of these ballots in a non-biased manner, that's a net gain for Franken of another 64 ballots. Realistically, odds are good though that about 75%+ of these disputed ballots will be seen as indicating significant enough evidence of intent, as such panels are loathe to throw out people's votes on judgement calls... So expect about another 100 votes for Franken.

And finally, you have to assume that there's likely to be more Franken votes that come from the approx. 1500+ absentee votes that were thrown out, once they are fully reviewed by the Franken campaign, especially as Democrats appear to have surpassed Republicans this year in absentee ballot votes.

By themselves, these three statistical trends are relatively narrow and insignificant, but when you add them together, and when they *ALL* appear to favor Franken, it's hard to not give Franken the overall edge in the final outcome.

The biggest hope for Coleman is a significant variation in the relative accuracy of the various types of optical scanning equipment. Apparently, most of the precincts counted thus far were initially scanned with "Eagle" scanning machines. Obviously, the failure rate for votes scanned by those machines favor Franken. But will votes scanned by the other scanning machines be just as tempermental? That remains to be seen.

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