Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,

The polls close in Virginia.

For those looking at the early numbers being reported by CNN and sweatin' bigtime, all I can say is, you're looking at the wrong thing. These early results are based primarily on small counties, which are able to report in much faster than large cities.  You will see this shift considerably as the night goes on.

I hate to say it, but the exit polling says far more than the actual results, at this second...

CNN's exit polling for Virginia has just been released, and is putting the contest at approximately:

54% Obama
45% McCain
1% other

Now, I know the unreliability of exit polling, but that said, I have *NEVER* seen an exit poll shift 9 points before. (Not even in Ohio in '04.)  By my math, this projected outcome is about 4.7 points above the projected average for this race, based on prior polls. 

CNN has already called Democrat John Warner as the winner of the Senate seat in Virginia, which shows considerable confidence on their part about how this is going to play out.

So, it seems pretty clear to me that Barack Obama will take Virginia, which makes it absolutely necessary for John McCain to take Pennsylvania, as there is no other realistic course to the White House for him if he does not do so. 

*** UPDATE, 5:05 pm : MSNBC has just called Pennsylvania for our next President, Barack Obama! ***

I see no reason to suspect at this point that the latest Gallup and Zogby polls aren't essentially correct, and that Barack Obama is on his way to winning by an 8 to 12 point margin nationwide, making this the biggest non-incumbent victory since at least Reagan (9%), if not Eisenhower (11%) or even F.D.R. (17%). 

This, frankly, looks historic.   

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