Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,

More evidence suggesting battleground states have moved into Republican Territory.

While the vast majority of political polls are for the so-called "battleground states", there have been a few interesting polls out recently from states previously thought to be solid Republican that, although not surveyed often, indicate that there might be the makings of a few additional Obama wins out there that we don't know about yet, simply because there isn't enough recent information to reliably make a determination.

Case in point... West Virginia. ARG's latest poll scores it 50% Obama, 42% McCain. Although I tend to think that ARG's polls aren't that good, it still indicates a pretty impressive change... if it's correct, it would represent about a 14-point shift in the polls over the last 3 weeks or so. It also tends to indicate a real change amongst voters in a region where Obama was once thought to be especially weak.

Part of the reason for such a shift -- besides the economy -- is that West Virginia is probably getting bombarded with Obama ads on all three sides, that are going over state borders from Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Obama is not only outspending McCain on local advertising -- especially in Virginia -- it's also outspending it greatly on national advertising, which could potentially help to shift states that otherwise wouldn't be in play.

There's also a new poll out in North Dakota that puts the race there at 45% Obama, 43% McCain. North Dakota hasn't been actively polled for over a month, and Obama campaign workers have already been pulled out of the state, but this is very promising news, and might even hint towards the possibility of victory in states such as Montana as well.

It'll be interesting to see just how this plays out as things go forward.  Will the mainstream media catch on to the fact that there may be new "battleground states" out there, or will they be surprised on Election Day?

**UPDATE - More evidence... SurveyUSA's new poll is giving Obama a 51%-43% lead in Missouri. Ouch.

Really, now would be a great time for Obama to get the Clintons in tow and start taking the fight to the Republican heartland, with the primary goal of flipping more of the House and Senate seats his way, if not flipping entire states. 

How many more times do they need to visit Pennsylvania and Ohio at this point anyway? My answer... just once, right before Election Day, just to make sure.

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