Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,
Insomnia
insomnia

Thoughts on Super Tuesday so far.

 It's... interesting.  Very mixed, really. Hillary Clinton is doing well amongst northeastern liberal voters, but Obama is doing very well in the South, in states like Minnesota, Illinois, and Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and North Dakota, and is much more competitive in the Southwest than I would've expected, with close to half of the Latino vote.

Yes, he did poorly with Latino voters in New York, but arguably, he didn't campaign there in any way like how he has done in the West. And it shows... the Latino vote in the Southwest were against him by about a 2-1 margin in much of the Southwest a few weeks ago, and now it's quite even. This is a very good sign for California, and probably for Texas as well when they have their primary. If he keeps up these demographics, he should do well enough in California tonight.  

As far as delegates go, it looks like it will be close... and that's really good enough at this point. The key to this race isn't for Obama to become the immediate presumptive front-runner. It's for him to be well-situated for the next several races, while Clinton's campaign starts "sucking air" financially, it's donors maxed out and others reluctant to start bundling more money for her campaign. This should allow Obama to leverage his grassroots and financial advantage to win the majority of the remaining states, where he'll have more time than ever to campaign and more of a chance to get to know voters than this very rushed primary day.

Ultimately, that's what will win states for Obama, and what should allow him to overcome his deficit with Latino voters in Texas and other Clinton-leaning groups. If Obama does as well with Latinos in Texas as he has done so far in New Mexico, it will be very hard for Hillary Clinton to win the presidency, period.

Ok.... back to the tube. Hopefully they'll start getting some votes up for California. I expect it will start off a little more slanted to Clinton than normal, due to mail-in ballots and the fact that they have to count all those paper ballots. It could be a long night...     


  
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