Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,

Hurricane Dean looking more dangerous.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded their forecasts regarding Hurricane Dean, which is on a direct course to Jamaica. The NHC gives Dean a 40% chance of being a Cat-4 or 5 hurricane within the next 48 hours, and a 35% chance of being a Cat-3.

The current NHC estimate shows the hurricane winging the Yucatan penninsula at about a cat-4, passing right over Cancun, weakening slightly, and then entering the gulf and regaining strength. Their averaged model show the most likely U.S. targets of the hurricane being Port Isabel/Brownsville, Corpus Cristi, and Galveston.

WeatherUnderground's chart of the computer models seem to indicate that the mid to northern Texas coast is about the most likely longterm target, while Boatus' models seem to indicate southern to mid Texas as the most likely target. 

The GFDL model above remains the most worrisome of the bunch, indicating a more dangerous northerly course than most other models. It also suggests that this hurricane will quickly reach Cat-5 strength, and will plow through Jamaica and Cancun without slowing notably, reaching wind speeds of 153 knots in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. Hurricane Katrina, in comparison, hit the Louisiana coast at about 125 knots. Another major consideration is just how large a storm Hurricane Dean is.  The most recent satellite imagery shows it as being quite large and intense already,

I've created a hurricanedeancommunity to track the storm further, and to give people a central location to communicate and coordinate, as needed. Hopefully it won't be, but better safe than sorry.

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