Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,

Voto por Voto.

Mexico's partial recount of the votes cast at 11,839 polling booths -- about 9 percent of the total -- has begun, and appear to be turning up some irregularities:

Party representatives and six soldiers watched as officials spent nearly 90 minutes counting ballots from the first of 28 packages they were ordered to review. The end result: One less vote for Calderon and one more for Lopez Obrador, a total of 11 votes more all together than what workers reported immediately after the election, and five null votes instead of the initially reported seven. - Lisa J. Adams, Associated Press

At the offices of a Mexico City election district, they complained that three ballot boxes held in storage were lying open and many others had not been sealed properly. . . At one electoral district, early counts found 21 ballots had gone missing . . . Across town, Lopez Obrador gained two votes at one station and seven votes initially marked as invalid were missing at another. - Kieran Murray, Reuters

So, there are irregularities, which are perhaps to be expected. There are also serious issues of ballot boxes that aren't properly sealed, which may have been tampered with. The question is, how widespread are these problems?

Specifically of interest to me is whether in the process of tallying the votes at the nearly 12,000 polling booths in question, there is a statistical abnormality as to the variance. In other words, you'd expect any irregularities in those ballot boxes to be natural ones that tended to be evenly distributed amongst each candidate. If, however, recounts discover that Obrador's votes were the ones being undercounted in a noticeable majority of these incidents, that to me would be grounds for a complete recount.

It will be interesting to see how all this plays out over the next few days, as the recount progresses. I fear that the final result might not be conclusive, leaving Mexico in a state of polarized limbo. I guess we'll see. For now, patience is advised, as things should be a lot clearer after the votes are counted.

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