Judging from what I can see, it looks like Kerry will lose Florida, Arizona, and Colorado... but is likely to sqeak out victories in Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa. When I say squeak, I mean squeak... all of these states are in Kerry's favor, but could go the other way. Give him a 70% chance on each of these states... but the penalty for one misstep is losing the election.
Nevada is damn close, but will probably trend Kerry. New Mexico is damn close, but will probably trend Bush.
*IF* current trends in *ALL* these states hold out, Kerry *should* get 284 electoral votes and a win. That said, Ohio is a really, really close race, and depends largely upon the final vote count in Cincinnati. If Kerry loses Ohio, he loses. If he loses Iowa, he loses. If he loses Nevada, he loses.
That said, the votes from California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii will probably give Kerry the majority of the popular vote. If Bush wins, he will once more *NOT* have a consensus from this election... expect long days of fighting, both at home and abroad. Don't expect a honeymoon, but expect Bush to act like there was one. Expect him and his to be dragged out of the White House four years too late, after the damage has been done.
Despite how close things are, though, I am going to pick a winner.
Osama Bin Laden. He gets to fight an America that's hopelessly divided.
The loser? The world, the U.S., Bush, Kerry, and the Iraqi people. Not neccessarily in that order.