Admittedly, it's only a 3% lead, but with Kerry holding the initiative and debates on Bush's most vulnerable issues coming up, all is not well in their camp.
It should be remembered that this is the same John Kerry who, when he was running for the Senate in 1996, trailed Massachusetts governor William Weld by over 8% just a month before the election.
And it all changed during the debates. Everyone expected Kerry to be outshined by Weld's likeability and charisma... Weld had won the race for the governor just two years earlier with a massive 71% of the vote in a pro-Democrat state. Many thought he was on the way to the Presidency.
In the debates, however, Kerry was strong, composed, agile, and surprisingly personal at times, outperforming Weld, even though Weld's performance was still considered quite strong.
On the eve of the election, the race was viewed as too close to call. On the day of the election, however, Kerry didn't just beat Weld... he beat him by 7%, gaining over 15% in the polls in just one month.
Weld was a charismatic, articulate, populist Republican, and John Kerry sent him permanently out to pasture... and George W. Bush is no William Weld.