Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,

A "best guess" at Hurricane Ivan.

I took this projection for Ivan and moved the storm "to shore" so that those who might be effected know more or less what they can expect.

Areas in the yellow zone should experience winds between 40-60 MPH and heavy rain. Areas in the blue zone can expect to experience 60-75 MPH winds and the potential for flash flooding. Those in the black area can expect 75-125 MPH winds -- worse on the east side of the hurricane -- with a storm surge, flash floods, and a slight risk of tornados. Those in the red area can expect 120-140 MPH winds, a storm surge of up to 14', widespread flooding, and a severe risk of tornadoes.

The big differences between Ivan and Hurricane Frederic from 1979 is that Ivan is somewhat further west than Frederic, therefore effecting New Orleans to a greater degree, and that Ivan is a much "wetter", more dangerous hurricane. Much of the damage done in Jamaica and the Caymans came from the torrential downpours and flash flooding. One witness said that Ivan "turned the air turned to foam" with an endless torrent of vertical rain.

For those inland, the hurricane should head NNW from Mobile towards Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but winds should be no greater than about 40-70 MPH by the time it reaches there. Expect power outages, downed trees, and localized flooding.

BTW, for those that love hurricane photos, adaeon pointed out this lovely satellite photo of Ivan, passing inbetween Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula, with Florida visible in the upper right of the picture.

** Update - According to one meteorologist's report I've seen, warm high winds which were previously forecast and which could have decreased Ivan's strength don't appear to be materializing. Likewise, there is apparently a patch of warm, deep gulf water ahead of Ivan, which could help feed the hurricane. Also, I wanted to stress that Ivan could still hit anywhere in a very large stretch of coast. The goal of my prediction wasn't to say exactly where it would hit, but to indicate the extent to which it could damage a very large region spanning over 210 miles, no matter where it lands.**

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