More coalition unravelling.
Ukrainian opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko has pledged to withdraw all troops from Iraq if he wins the October election. A recent poll shows him comfortably ahead by a large margin, so this seems a likely scenario. A Yushchenko victory followed by an immediate withdrawl of Ukranian troops may also effect other elections, such as the upcoming Polish election, and possibly even upcoming elections in the U.S. and Australia. In the same way that the Bush administration was hurt by the Spanish withdrawl from Iraq, a Ukranian withdrawl could reflect badly on Bush's perceived ability to hold the coalition together.
Ukraine has around 1,000 soldiers in Iraq, making it one of the major partners in the Coalition.
In other news, Thailand, which promised to keep its soldiers in Iraq until Sept. 20th, has started to pull its 443 troops out early, presumably leaving just a token force in place.