Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,
Insomnia
insomnia

Dinner is served.

Kerry wins Virginia with over 50% of the vote, nearly double the votes of his nearest follower, Edwards. He also wins in Tennesee with 40% of the vote. This leaves Edwards and Clark battling over second place, with Dean hoping -- in vain -- for a win in Wisconsin, where a poll just put Kerry ahead by a 3-1 margin over Dean.

Stick a fork in it. It's done.

The race is now for VP, with Edwards and Clark as the most likely choices, and Edwards as the presumptive front-runner in that contest. Kerry could select someone else, but the only VP candidate that I have heard suggested who could be just as good for Kerry would be Bill Richardson, who could successfully debate Cheney on foriegn and energy policy, while handing Kerry the latino vote on a plate, locking up California, giving Kerry the upper hand in states like Florida, and quite possibly forcing Bush to campaign hard in Texas. A very competent guy... but still a dark horse.

And that leads us to the Democratic National Convention, late July in Boston. Might as well be called Kerrytown, for all that it matters. Kerry will get a bounce, and have a strong lead overBush in head-to-head polls. This will be followed by the Republican National Convention in NYC. Expect large protests, combined with transparent attempts to milk 9/11. The only excitement that might come out of this is Giuliani, who, if he doesn't step in and take over for an ailing Cheney, will probably make a speech that sets him up as the presumptory Republican frontrunner for 2008. Will Bush get a bounce? Dunno. I hear NBC is releasing their new fall lineup that week, so the excitement might be muted.

Then the gloves come off, as Bush's campaign (and the Republicans in general) try to brand Kerry as wishy-washy on defense, anti-military, and a Vietnam-era commie sympathizer, while Bush spews FUD while emphasizing trust, security, and tax cuts. Bush will have the most money, but something tells me that might not matter. We'll see...
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