Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,

So, what's the justification going to be...

When Hans Blix goes to the UN and announces that Iraq has continued to make significant steps towards disarmament and has agreed to destroy their al-Samoud missiles?

It is a shame that they didn't agree to this before the British Parliament's meeting the other day, as it would have helped their case considerably, but still... it looks to me like there are at least two weeks (probably closer to three) before war, and the US and British moral position for war is being gradually eroded.

Frankly, this greatly increases the stakes for Blair, as it now seems highly unlikely that the US and the UK will be able to force a resolution through the UN that could be seen as backing military action. In order to pass such a resolution, the US would need about nine "yes" votes from the UN security council, but I doubt they could get that... other countries like France might not have to veto such a resolution, either. All they would have to do is vote "present", which would be a politically correct way of saying "Yes, we heard the US and British argument for war, but the inspections are still making progress, so let's discuss this matter later..."

With UN prospects looking uglier and uglier, talk of thousands of people flowing in to Iraq in the next month, either as part of the Human Shield mission or the Iraq Peace Team, and with another round of large protests on March 15th around the country, it seems to me that the Bush administration are going to wish that they got their troops into position far quicker than they did. They Bush administration might find the next few weeks of peace almost as distasteful as they'll find war...

And the "peace" afterwards won't be a picnic either once the truth gets out. Even as we speak, Iraq is being decended upon by independent observers, peace activists, and freelance reporters. This war may not immediately be televised, but it will be recorded by hundreds of ordinary people in extraordinary circumstances. The typical restrictions that apply to the press camped out at the Al Rasheed in downtown Baghdad don't apply to these people, and some of the press are getting wise to this and starting to infiltrate the ranks of the peace activists. If the people of Iraq need more of anything right now, it is cameras, camcorders, and websites. Sooner or later, such technology just might make war obsolete.

If there are any democracies that the Bush administration are going to create, they just might create them by "backlash", and those democracies might be a whole lot more democratic (and less sympathetic to the US) than Bush would like. If the UN is ignored by the US, the other nations of the world will simply find other tactics to use to try to quell US' nationbuilding schemes until a new president comes into power. This does not bode well for our economy...

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