November 5th, 2008

fashionable

A few closing observations on the election results.

As far as the presidential election goes, it looks like McCain is going to end up with Missouri, while Obama will win Indiana and North Carolina.  That would end things at  364 electoral votes Obama, 174 electoral votes McCain... a big electoral margin for Democrats, about as many as Clinton got in '92, with about 10% more of the popular vote.  Things will probably wrap things up at about a 53%-46% race... a seven point margin.

That said... it says something that the deep south -- with the exception of Florida -- went so strongly for McCain, largely along racial lines.  88% of whites in Alabama voted for McCain, and 98% of blacks voted for Obama, who comprised 29% of all voters.

Compare that to 2004, when 80% of Alabama whites voted for Bush, an incumbent, while Kerry got 91% of the black vote, who comprised 25% of all voters. Seems to me, frankly, that another 7% of the black vote for the first black Democratic nominee is understandable, as is an increased black turnout... but what troubles me is that white Alabamans voted so much more against Obama than against Kerry, especially since Kerry was running against an incumbent that was generally popular in that state. 

Looking at the remaining senate contests and guesstimating based on the remaining outstanding vote, and where that vote is... it looks to me like:
 
-  Coleman and Franken appear likely to be practically tied in Minnesota, with such a small margin between them that they're heading for an automatic recount. Franken is currently behind by only about 675 votes, but up to 1% of the precincts in St. Louis county haven't been counted yet, so the finall difference before a recount could literally be just a handful of votes... and given that larger cities are more likely to have provisional ballots or some other odd ballots hanging around, who knows what's going to happen?
   
-  Chambliss of Georgia will make the 50% margin and not need a run-off against Martin.

-  Merkley in Oregon is currently trailing the incumbent senator Smith, with counting apparently stopped for the night... but the areas remaining to be counted are slanted in his direction, and he could still eke out a very close  win in Oregon against Smith, especially if there are provisional ballots to be counted. It is so close that victory is hardly certain and a recount might be necessary.

-  Convicted criminal Stevens of Alaska will beat Begich. Obviously, the reputation of the Alaska Republican Party is secured. When asked whether she would vote for Stevens, Sarah Palin sidestepped the question, unsurprisingly. 

So, no fillibuster-proof majority, but still, a big night for the Democrats nonetheless. 
fashionable

California's big step backwards.

SoCal -- with the exception of Santa Barbara -- screws homosexuals. Ugh. Constitutional ban on same-sex marriages passes by 238,000 votes statewide.

Really, it's pretty sad, SoCal.  I mean, I can understand the Central Valley and Sierras being backwards, but really... you're less progressive than the retirement communities near Lake Tahoe? How hard is that?!

You see, this is one of the reasons why people in Northern California aren't always that enthused about SoCal types. So many of them *sound* like homosexuals... and then they spoil it by saying what they really believe!

And hey, San Francisco... the entire city cast only 177,000 "no" votes?! What gives? That's less than Pride Day! Where are the other 500,000 of you on this issue?  Perhaps if you had just registered more local voters and got out the vote in S.F. and the surrounding non-discriminatory counties...

And, of course, I have plenty of frustrations about the Mormon cult, who felt so inclined as to spend millions in order to modify our state constitution to their liking, selectively taking away people's rights as established by our courts.

One of the real keys to winning these sorts of things in the future, I think, is to pass a constitutional amendment banning all out-of-state political donations or legislation for ballot measures in California. But really, this isn't the first time that outside groups have tried to foist bad legislation on California, because it's one of the most reliable ways to hold back progress, not only statewide, but also nationwide.

Really, the Mormon cult **KNOW** they used the privacy of their places of "worship" to illegally solicit political donations.  In fact, members of their own cult have come forward admitting to such behavior.  So, since turnaround is fair play, why not create a constitutional amendment to permanently remove all tax exemptions for the Mormon Church, and forbid them from knocking on people's doors early in the morning? Or perhaps the gay community should get the Sisters of the Perpetual Indulgence, cross dressers, gay club kids, and members of Beach Blanket Babylon to pass out info to Mormons outside their places of worship throughout California, explaining how to secretly pursue their latent homosexuality, where to buy a buttplug, give them packs with free condoms and lube, etc.   Make their appearances so damn frequent and **F-A-A-A-ABULOUS**  that the Mormons feel compelled to go elsewhere.. or maybe just leave others who are just trying to live their lives with some dignity and the same basic rights as everyone else the hell alone!

Really, I think it would be helpful to have a major GLBT-Mormon "outreach" program. There are certainly similarities between Mormons and homosexuals, after all... they both appreciate funny underwear, short haircuts, and intensive personal grooming!  
fashionable

A little more good news.

Congrats, Oregon.  Looks like people are gradually waking up to the fact that Merkley is going to be your new Democratic Senator by about 30,000 votes, thanks to all the wonderful people in Multnomah County who still need their votes counted!

Also, The Nation is announcing that Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia has failed to reach 50%, thereby triggering a runoff election between him and Democratic challenger Jim Martin!

President-elect Obama should take advantage of this fact, and get out there and campaign for Martin!

And, of course, there's still the Al Franken race, where a recount could keep things undecided until December. I have to think that there are probably a fair amount of provisional and absentee ballots out there which would tend to benefit Franken, so I wouldn't even suggest that the incumbent Coleman has an advantage.  Coleman, apparently, believes that the outcome of this election is too important to actually count the votes.

So, that's either 56, 57, or 58. Your choice.  Contribute to Martin!
fashionable

And to think I once voted for this dick.

 

 

King Ralph the Fuckhead

I agree that Obama should be held accountable to actually help people, but this was *NOT* the way to say it! 

And he wanted to be president? Since when is it presidential to say this kind of crap? Good luck finding any party in the future who will *EVER* let you get a free ride on their ticket, asshole.

I only think it's a shame that FoxNews were the ones who brought him to task... definite case of pot & kettle there!

Matt Gonzalez should reject and renounce!