October 4th, 2008


The battleground moves solidly into Republican territory.

More bad news for John McCain in the latest polls...

Rasmussen released a post-debate poll of 1000 likely voters that generally concurs with the CBS / CNN snap polls on the Vice Presidential debate, giving Biden the win by a 45% -37% margin.

In Minnesota, Al Franken now leads over incumbent Norm Coleman, 43 to 34 percent, with Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley trailing at 18 percent.  Coleman led Franken by four points in last month’s Minnesota Poll.

This poll has a very large sample size for a state race, with 1,084 likely Minnesota voters, which suggests pretty good accuracy.  It also suggests that Barack Obama is seeing Minnesota go the way of Michigan... a state that John McCain was forced to pull out of recently.

Yesterday, two new polls came out of New Hampshire which indicate that New Hampshire, which was once thought of as a potential pick-up state for McCain, has moved out of his reach.

Rasmussen puts New Hampshire at 53% Obama, 43% McCain... while St. Anselm/SRBI puts N.H. at 49% Obama, 37% McCain.

Yesterday's Rasmussen poll also gave Barack Obama a 51%-47% lead in Nevada... a very significant shift in his direction.

The question over the next week is whether the gap we're seeing will continue to expand, cementing more states into the Obama column, while putting others in play... but with new high unemployment reports and continued economic turmoil, I don't see why it wouldn't.

**update** New poll from Pennsylvania... 51% Obama, 39% McCain.

A lot of states that McCain badly needs are starting to look very Michigan-like all of a sudden...