February 5th, 2008

fashionable

The five stages of Hillary Clinton's dying White House bid.

There are FIVE stages of dying.

DENIAL: "I have so many ideas for this country, I just don't want to see us fall backwards, you know?!"

ANGER: "I want to make change, but I've already made change! I will continue to make change! . . . We don't need to be raising the false hopes of our country..."

BARGAINING: "I will consider every qualified person (as a running mate), and that certainly covers (Barack Obama)..."

Three down. That leaves depression and acceptance still to go... admittedly, they're the hardest ones, but there is some reason to hope that depression might kick in soon.  

Let's all give take a moment to send out a little prayer so that Hillary has as swift and painless a passing as possible. 
fashionable

Thoughts on Super Tuesday so far.

 It's... interesting.  Very mixed, really. Hillary Clinton is doing well amongst northeastern liberal voters, but Obama is doing very well in the South, in states like Minnesota, Illinois, and Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and North Dakota, and is much more competitive in the Southwest than I would've expected, with close to half of the Latino vote.

Yes, he did poorly with Latino voters in New York, but arguably, he didn't campaign there in any way like how he has done in the West. And it shows... the Latino vote in the Southwest were against him by about a 2-1 margin in much of the Southwest a few weeks ago, and now it's quite even. This is a very good sign for California, and probably for Texas as well when they have their primary. If he keeps up these demographics, he should do well enough in California tonight.  

As far as delegates go, it looks like it will be close... and that's really good enough at this point. The key to this race isn't for Obama to become the immediate presumptive front-runner. It's for him to be well-situated for the next several races, while Clinton's campaign starts "sucking air" financially, it's donors maxed out and others reluctant to start bundling more money for her campaign. This should allow Obama to leverage his grassroots and financial advantage to win the majority of the remaining states, where he'll have more time than ever to campaign and more of a chance to get to know voters than this very rushed primary day.

Ultimately, that's what will win states for Obama, and what should allow him to overcome his deficit with Latino voters in Texas and other Clinton-leaning groups. If Obama does as well with Latinos in Texas as he has done so far in New Mexico, it will be very hard for Hillary Clinton to win the presidency, period.

Ok.... back to the tube. Hopefully they'll start getting some votes up for California. I expect it will start off a little more slanted to Clinton than normal, due to mail-in ballots and the fact that they have to count all those paper ballots. It could be a long night...     


  
fashionable

So, what happened in California?

So far, It looks like absentee ballots are having a HUGE effect on this race... unfortunately, not for the better. Lots of people obviously voted-by-mail a long time ago, and the races don't reflect the polls at all as a result, except as far as voters in the last few days are concerned, a majority of whom have supported Barack Obama.

How bad is the vote-by-mail effect? Take a look at this report from Glenn County:

Glenn
updated 18 minutes ago
794
50%
33%
reporting
 
457
29%
 
280
18%


That's right. John Edwards is still in this race... and in the counts reported at this point, he's got double digits in most counties, so   Unfortunately, many of those Edwards voters are wishing they had their ballots back tonight. I would be willing to bet a fair amount of Clinton voters wish they had their ballots back too.  

Still, taking a look at the results, it's clear that it will tighten up somewhat, as the last votes to be counted will skew most heavily towards Obama. Some areas have already moved over into the Obama camp, but since we're back to paper ballots, it will take a long time to complete the counts.  Tomorrow midday will give us a better picture, I suspect.

 ------------------------------
UPDATE:

If you look at just the votes which were cast yesterday in California, as opposed to the mail-in votes, Barack Obama won handily.

If you look at the votes by county with the mail-in votes,it's glaringly obvious that most of the votes were pre-South Carolina. This will not be the case for the rest of the election. Americans today know Barack Obama much better than last week... and they like what they see.

We have watched Hillary Clinton spend corporate lobbyist money at a rate faster than they can replace. In January, an army of Obama supporters raised $31 million, while Hillary raised about $15m, mostly from big donors who can't contribute anymore.

We have taken every low blow that she and her husband could afford to throw at us... and now, they're punched out, hoping that they can bribe our candidate out of the race with the Vice Presidency. Now they're low on funds, pleading for debates so that they can get some free air time.

They're claiming victory, and yet the gap in delegates between us and them is almost exactly as narrow as it was yesterday, and a strong victory with Democrats Abroad will make it almost exactly even.

It's pretty clear who's in a strong position now. After this point, all the momentum and support leans heavily to Barack Obama in the upcoming races. Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii, and Wisconsin.

What we have witnessed tonight is the high water mark for Hillary Clinton's presumptuous, overbearing quest for power.