January 19th, 2008


The Nevada Caucuses.

Looks like Romney won the Nevada Republican caucus pretty overwhelmingly, with Ron Paul and John McCain neck and neck for a distant second place.

The caucusing for Democrats began just 30 minutes ago, and with about 25% of the results in, Hillary Clinton has a narrow lead over Obama, 48% to 45%, with 5% for John Edwards.  That said, the results are extremely early, and there is a huge reported turnout in some areas that appear to be more pro-Obama, which have yet to report their results.

It remains to be seen whether today's performance, combined with South Carolina, could be the end of any serious competition from John Edwards, who is falling relative to his prior performances. In one precinct in Clark county, there was a solitary Kucinich supporter, but not a single Edwards supporter. Considering how much loyalty so many Edwards supporters have, it's actually a bit of a shock. I can only assume that Edwards voters are switching with the intent of preventing a Hillary Clinton win.

For political junkies like myself, you can watch the live television coverage from KLAS in Las Vegas.  

Snatching victory out of the jaws of defeat.

Despite losing the popular vote, it appears that Barack Obama has won in Nevada, in the only way that really matters... 

He got the most delegates, tieing in urban Clark County, the home of Las Vegas, but winning significantly in the rural regions in the rest of the state.

(So... when have we seen this happen before?!)

Statewide, Obama won 11 counties to Clinton's 6. It seems ironic that Bill Clinton had a snit about how voters in the casino caucuses were overrepresented in the statewide tally by a five-to-one ratio -- a flat out distortion, mind you -- but now that his wife actually won many of those caucuses, he doesn't have any complaints about the system.

Perhaps his somewhat complementary statement regarding Reagan paid off, as he seems to have walked away with the lion's share of Independents and disillusioned Republicans. Personally, though... if it gets conservatives to come out and support a progressive populist reformer, I can't help but think it's a good thing.

So... who wants to bet that Hillary's backers are going to complain about being robbed of delegates next?!