January 3rd, 2008



On Tuesday, I pointed out that the latest Des Moines Register poll indicated that Obama was developing a significant lead in Iowa, Edwards was on the rise, and Hillary could find herself in third place...

... and today, the Reuters/Zogby poll has Obama at 31%, Edwards at 27%, and Hillary at 24%.

Also worth pointing out are the numbers for the Republicans. Huckabee has 31% to Romney's 25%, with McCain, Thompson, and Ron Paul tied for third, well ahead of Giuliani! Given that Ron Paul's supporters are more likely to be dismissed as "unlikely voters" by whatever methodology that Zogby is using, I suspect that he's got an excellent chance of getting third place. Whether that actually results in any kind of increased attention though remains to be seen.   


Obama clobbers 'em in Iowa!

The Iowa caucus results are in, and the clear winner is... Iowa! 

Projections showed a record turnout of 230,000 for the Democrats, compared to 124,000 who showed up for Democratic caucuses in 2004. The turnout was nearly twice as large as that of the Republicans, whose turnout also was up from four years ago.

With 1,777 of 1,781 precincts reporting:

Barack Obama - 38 percent
John Edwards - 30 percent
Hillary Clinton - 29 percent
Bill Richardson - 2 percent

Way to go Obama and congrats to the Edwards camp!  

Looks like I was right about my interpretation of the Des Moines Register poll with Hillary getting 3rd place. This is me, being *very* damn smug! 

Most people following the election simply didn't pay much attention to what that poll was saying about Edwards coming from behind and beating Hillary for second place.  The Clinton campaign's complaints about the methodology was a real smokescreen, because it was the same methodology that caused the Des Moines Register's poll to easily be the closest predictor in the 2004 caucuses.  

As for the Republicans, with 86% reporting... 
Mike Huckabee 35,401 - 34 percent
Mitt Romney 26,167 - 25 percent
Fred Thompson 13,834 - 13 percent
John McCain 13,556 - 13 percent
Ron Paul 10,040 - 10 percent
Rudy Giuliani 3,590 - 3 percent

I was really hoping Ron Paul would beat out Thompson and McCain, but the ability of polls with typical sample sizes to accurately predict who would get 3rd, 4th, and 5th place at approximately 10% each is really sketchy. Literally, a statistical variation of a handful of people in the polling could skew the results towards one candidate or the other. Still, he did well, and clobbered Giuliani, which is nice to see. 

Now if only Ron Paul can find a way to "cash in" his support in order to get one of the leading Republican candidates to adopt some of his least controversial, most pressing issues. It would be nice to have the Republican Party acknowledge that protecting and defending the Constitution of the United States actually meant something for a change.