October 8th, 2004


The other shoe is dropping.

From electoral-vote.com's site:

"The new Zogby polls came out after today's update. They will be in tomorrow's update."

Actually, they didn't. I contacted the webmaster, letting them know that they had been out for a couple of days now -- they were mentioned in several major news articles -- and that he was using 11-day-old results in Wisconsin.

If he adds the Zogby results, Kerry should get credit for 17 electoral votes in Michigan, 10 in Wisconsin, and 5 in Nevada, with Florida and Arkansas going into the "too close to call" category.

What this seems to indicate?
Kerry 285 , Bush 199 ... 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Sure, polls aren't everything, but it still feels nice to see the facade stripped away now and then. This is Kerry's race to lose.

Something for Kerry to discuss tonight...

On eve of tonight's debate, more bad news for Bush. The economy stumbled last month, with only 96,000 new jobs -- far short of the 138,000 jobs the Bush Administration predicted, or the 150,000 new jobs needed every month just to keep up with population growth. Another interesting tidbit is that 37,000 of the 96,000 new jobs are government employees, up from 24,000 in August and 11,000 in July. Is the timing coincidental? Meanwhile, electoral-vote.com changed their methodology -- again -- so that it more accurately reflects recent poll results. The difference is striking.

Meanwhile, in that other election...

According to two new polls today in the Australian election, Newspoll predicts a dead heat between Howard and Latham at 50 per cent each, while the ACNielsen poll has Latham comfortably ahead at 54-46.

People are voting as we speak. Could this be Howard's End?! If so, it will be another blow for the Bush Administration in holding together the coalition in Iraq.

"How's the weather down there, Howard?!"

Debate #2

To me, this debate seemed to be primarily about substance and trust.

Somewhat over 50% of Americans right now don't trust Bush. Approximately the same percentage didn't trust Kerry.

More of them trust Kerry now. He answered the questions more completely, and did so in ways that stood out in stark contrast to most of Bush's responses. Bush was on the defensive most of the debate, and dodged a lot of tough questions. John Kerry dodged a few too, but was more direct and honest... and ultimately more personable than we've usually seen him in the past.

Bush's biggest flub: To fail to answer what he thought were his three biggest failures.
Kerry's biggest flub: Not to point that out, and not to respond back with three failings of his own. He could've put the election away had he done so.

This debate should establish Kerry as top dog. I think voters are connecting more to Kerry and fearing less... especially after Kerry's promise not to increase their taxes. *THAT* was the key moment of this debate. Kerry's got a week to change focus and nail down his economic and domestic issue zingers against Bush. He will do so. This debate was just an appetizer, as far as that was concerned. Next week, he'll look as substantial as steak. Bush will look like dead meat. The summit is in sight. The rest is downhill. The fear is over. The clouds are passing. The way forward is clear.

As Churchill said after victory in the battle over Britain's skies, "This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."