Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,
Insomnia
insomnia

A few closing observations on the election results.

As far as the presidential election goes, it looks like McCain is going to end up with Missouri, while Obama will win Indiana and North Carolina.  That would end things at  364 electoral votes Obama, 174 electoral votes McCain... a big electoral margin for Democrats, about as many as Clinton got in '92, with about 10% more of the popular vote.  Things will probably wrap things up at about a 53%-46% race... a seven point margin.

That said... it says something that the deep south -- with the exception of Florida -- went so strongly for McCain, largely along racial lines.  88% of whites in Alabama voted for McCain, and 98% of blacks voted for Obama, who comprised 29% of all voters.

Compare that to 2004, when 80% of Alabama whites voted for Bush, an incumbent, while Kerry got 91% of the black vote, who comprised 25% of all voters. Seems to me, frankly, that another 7% of the black vote for the first black Democratic nominee is understandable, as is an increased black turnout... but what troubles me is that white Alabamans voted so much more against Obama than against Kerry, especially since Kerry was running against an incumbent that was generally popular in that state. 

Looking at the remaining senate contests and guesstimating based on the remaining outstanding vote, and where that vote is... it looks to me like:
 
-  Coleman and Franken appear likely to be practically tied in Minnesota, with such a small margin between them that they're heading for an automatic recount. Franken is currently behind by only about 675 votes, but up to 1% of the precincts in St. Louis county haven't been counted yet, so the finall difference before a recount could literally be just a handful of votes... and given that larger cities are more likely to have provisional ballots or some other odd ballots hanging around, who knows what's going to happen?
   
-  Chambliss of Georgia will make the 50% margin and not need a run-off against Martin.

-  Merkley in Oregon is currently trailing the incumbent senator Smith, with counting apparently stopped for the night... but the areas remaining to be counted are slanted in his direction, and he could still eke out a very close  win in Oregon against Smith, especially if there are provisional ballots to be counted. It is so close that victory is hardly certain and a recount might be necessary.

-  Convicted criminal Stevens of Alaska will beat Begich. Obviously, the reputation of the Alaska Republican Party is secured. When asked whether she would vote for Stevens, Sarah Palin sidestepped the question, unsurprisingly. 

So, no fillibuster-proof majority, but still, a big night for the Democrats nonetheless. 
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