Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,
Insomnia
insomnia

Election Day weather report...

Clear, warm weather throughout the nation, with the exception of some showers in the northwest -- nothing out of the ordinary for them -- and a chance for sprinkles centered around the South Carolina / North Carolina border, possibly extending down to Georgia and north to parts of Virginia.

Current weather forecasts for Tuesday predict showers in Wilmington, NC, and a chance of showers in Seattle, WA, Portland, OR, Atlanta, GA, Charleston, SC, Raleigh, NC, Charlotte, NC, Virginia Beach, VA, and Richmond, VA.

Theoretically, this could lower voting turnout, but most likely only in a very minimal way, with fine weather in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and throughout the Great Lakes region.  If turnout is somehow lowered in the Carolina / Virginia region, it might actually *benefit* the Democrats, given that they have apparently dominated early voting in these states this year. 

So, if weather isn't going to win it for the Republicans, perhaps the polls will, right?! Well... not likely.

The other day, Republican slime artist Matt Drudge was crowing about the Zogby three-day snapshot rolling poll.  And he wasn't even crowing about the poll's overall outcome, which put Obama ahead by over five points... he was crowing about the Friday snapshot of about 400 voters nationwide, which showed McCain with about a 2% lead.

Well, obviously, he's going to crow about today's Zogby polling, which shows Obama with a 52%-42% lead for Saturday's polling, right?!  (Clearly, Obama's supporters were either too busy working Friday, taking their kids trick-or-treating, or off celebrating somewhere on Friday night to answer the phone. Can you blame them?! )

The simple fact is that Zogby's sample size of 400 voters per day is far too small to accurately predict much of anything over a one-day period... unlike Gallup, which samples nearly 1000 voters per day, also on a rolling three-day snapshot of the election. And Gallup says that Obama is leading by 10% amongst traditional likely voters, which is incredible really, given that we're talking about their most conservative methodology, which just last week showed McCain only behind by two points. 

So, the country favors Obama... the battleground state polls are disproportionately favoring Obama... the early voting favors Obama... and Election Day looks like a GREAT day for voting nationwide, with minimal weather impact expected on turnout in the battleground states. Expect blue skies and blue votes at the polls with a 99.8% chance for landslides, followed by Republican tears, bloviating, and a long, long Republican winter. 
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