Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,
Insomnia
insomnia

New polls go south on the Republicans.

It took awhile for new state polls to reflect what we've been seeing in national polls lately, but it's looking more and more like a McMeltdown! New polls came out today from Quinnipiac and CNN that show a major shift to Obama in swing states. 

The CNN polls have some of the largest sample sizes I've seen recently for state polls, and should probably be considered the more definitive of the two.

Virginia: CNN 53-44 Obama.
Florida : CNN 51-47 Obama, Quinnipiac 51-43 Obama.
Nevada :  CNN 51-47 Obama.
Missouri : CNN 49-48 Obama.
Minnesota: CNN 54-43 Obama.
Ohio: Quinnipiac 50-42 Obama.
Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac 54-39 Obama.

What seems to be happening is that traditionally Democratic states like Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that McCain wanted to flip are solidifying for Obama, while battleground states that McCain can't afford to lose are moving towards Obama.

Some states, such as Virginia and Ohio, might not even be within reach of McCain at this point, even if he were to achieve somewhat of a comeback. Obama's campaign is currently outspending McCain by about 45% on advertising, and he has an even larger advantage in a well-funded grassroots movement, that has been very active in encouraging new registrations and in getting out the vote. As a result, there is a fear amongst Republican observers that the Obama campaign will do far better at "banking votes" via early voting, essentially locking in the votes of many people before McCain has a chance to win them back to his side.

This strong effort to encourage early voting reflects the experience of the Obama campaign during his contest vs. Hillary Clinton, where he would often find himself surging ahead in the polls before key races, only to lose ground due to mail-in ballots sent in weeks beforehand, at times when he was still down in the polls, oftentimes before he started actively campaigning in the state. 

If McCain wants to be serious about turning this race around, he has to do it in the next two weeks, which is sort of hard to imagine, unless Sarah Palin scores a big win in the debate tomorrow, Wall Street surges back VERY strongly, McCain clearly wins the debate next week, AND the results of the Alaskan investigation into Troopergate aren't damaging to Palin's credibility.

If McCain doesn't turn this race around by then, he is very likely to lose at least one of the battleground states that Bush won by losing amongst early voters... and this kind of winning scenario for McCain is pretty hard to imagine, frankly.      
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