Insomnia (insomnia) wrote,
Insomnia
insomnia

Obama campaign shifts into 3rd gear.

Well... the money has certainly been coming into the various Democratic campaigns, haven't they?!

From what I can tell, Barack Obama raised about $8.2 million in online contributions since Super Tuesday, plus an undisclosed amount yet-to-be revealed from MoveOn.org members... and more from various benefits, Super Tuesday parties, etc. nationwide. And now, what I suspect to be another $5M from the new campaign I'm about to mention... So, I'd guess somewhere around $17M?! Guess we'll see.

It's interesting to see that the Obama campaign's "since Super Tuesday" donation ticker was nearly at $8M, before being replaced by a final $7.6M  'thank you" ticker. This took place shortly after the Clinton campaign announced that they were able to raise $4M, and once it became clear that the visibly growing numbers on Obama's side were also encouraging Hillary's supporters to donate.

So, the Obama campaign shifted focus, and soon released a new donation ticker, this time emphasizing new supporters since 2008, with the goal of expanding their base of support and "ownership" of the campaign coming into the final stages of the race. This is going to be very important as time goes on, as most Obama donors probably won't he race moves on to the final stages, because they will want to leverage their grassroots movement in a viral manner for maximum results, while keeping the dollar amount per donor fairly low, allowing them to "share the pain" and, because of that, having an easier time going back to people later for extra donations, if necessary.  

This is where Obama's campaign really distinguishes itself from Clinton's, in that it started out as a grassroots campaign, and has substantially more active volunteers and contributors.  As such, it tends to grow virally, doubling in size at a fairly predictable rate... 200K, 400K, 800K, etc.

The problem for Hillary Clinton is that her campaign is only beginning to be grassroots, and started off as a more traditional corporate, lobbyist, and bundler-funded astroturf campaign... and that money has run out, though not before creating some grassroots support.  Still, if Clinton doubles grassroots supporters / donations, she's still further back than Obama. She could go from 50K donors to 100K donors, but that means little if Obama goes from 250K donors to 500K donors. 

So, by pulling their dollar amount ads and shifting focus to a longterm increase in the size of the support base, it shifts the argument to one that Hillary Clinton's campaign isn't currently talking about, can't compete effectively on, is a bit less obvious in the media -- and as a result, less easy for Clinton supporters to react to -- and that is presented in a way that isn't as likely to make a moderate Clinton supporter immediately rush out and donate, due to the apparent lack of urgency.

This evening, since the new ticker was released, I have seen it go from about 270K to 327K. That's probably about another $5M in Obama coffers, as many Obama supporters are stepping up and pulling their weight. It'll be interesting to see how this money goes to work as the campaign progresses, because if this article is true, the Clinton campaign, which I suspect will raise about $9 by the end of tomorrow, will *only* be a million dollars in debt then... and they're making media buys right now in the upcoming states, so they're apparently getting heavy into deficit spending, despite their best efforts! 

Expect another Clinton loan sometime soon...  though don't expect her to want to tell the press about it.
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